Everyone wants to make money by betting and few people really understand that long term winning is what will make you a winning, professional gambler. Betting sites with their thousands of mathematicians, journalists and traders have an advantage over us. They earn on our silly mistakes and earn a lot in the long run using techniques that we will explain in this text “How to calculate an odd quantitatively”.
When you are starting out in this world you think, “Man, just get it right, I’ll get along.” Well, that’s not always true, because you win and often has no long-term value. And with that, to familiarize you, understand the concept of 먹튀 “value bet”, which is in short when a bet offers much higher odds than what you calculated.
To win from bookmakers it is necessary to know all their strategies, techniques
Well, this is where the beginner gets the most, because he has a good knowledge about the sport, has defined good strategies in the markets he works, but he has no mathematical properties to say whether or not that bet is really worthwhile. That way I’ll use the over 2.5 market as an example to teach you how to get away from bad odds.
Strategy to Beat Betting Houses on the Over Under Goals Market
How to calculate an odd?
To get started, you need to know that there is a lot of math used to calculate an Odd. You can use simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, Poisson distribution, neural networks, multivariate analysis, etc. On the internet you can find it all. Well, I’m particularly adept at Poisson distribution (I’ll write about it) and we use it in many of the markets we work in, because it’s simple, and over time I’ve been able to adapt to that concept in the markets where we work.
Poisson distribution is suitable for use mainly in the goal market. Then you ask me “what the hell is this Poisson distribution and how are we going to use it?” Below is the formula:
If you don’t like math, you might be thinking about closing the tab right now. But calm down, buddy, in a nutshell this formula allows you to calculate an event “x” by averaging “y”. So, pulling for bets, he calls this x the “exact number of goals” and “Y” of a team’s average goals.
Frequency of Results under Over 2.5 goals
But how to use it in an under and over market? In the over / under 2.5 market, under 2.5 is when there are 0, 1 or 2 goals in the match, so you calculate the probability of having exactly 0, 1 and 2 goals and add those odds.