Where the Success in Betting Comes


Betting exchanges will tend to offer fairer odds, closer to the real probability. Why and how do Value Bets happen?

Bad predictions

Bookmakers do not have a crystal ball to predict the future and their predictions are also subject to error. In other words, when a bookmaker makes a mistake a rating can be scored. Bookmaker errors are offset by their profit margin, calculated on all odds.

Balance of bets

The 먹튀 bookmakers readjust their odds according to the sums already wagered so as to rebalance the balance of bets. For example, if the PSG faces Dijon, and the bettors massively bet on the victory of the PSG, from a certain threshold, the bookmaker will want to encourage the bettors to bet on the draw or the victory of Dijon, to do so, it will raise the odds which lacks liquidity and lowered the PSG rating.

The bookmaker seeks to counterbalance the total amount wagered to rebalance its risks. This local phenomenon explains the differences in odds between bookmakers. A French bookie is more inclined to have more liquidity in Ligue 1 than an Italian or English bookie. This will undoubtedly result in rating differences between the bookmakers.

Contrary to what can be said, if on the whole the ARJEL odds are less good, given that the odds vary over time and according to liquidity, it is quite possible to find, temporarily, value bets , if only because of this phenomenon.

Tip for good betting on football

A glaring example of badly adjusted odds because of the imbalance of the bets. What happens when a big country faces a small country? Imagine, England faces Sweden, in your opinion which coast is more likely to be a value bet?

The large quantity of Englishmen to bet in favor of their national team will necessarily be disproportionate compared to the limited number of bettors coming from a small country like Sweden. This is quite the kind of match where the odds of England may have a negative expected value while that of Sweden would have a positive expected value.

Calculate a value bet?

To bet on a value bet you still have to know how to calculate it. To do this, we will compare the value of the odds offered by the bookmaker with the probability that we have identified ourselves that an event will occur.

It should be understood that the concept of value bet is actually a very subjective concept insofar as it is up to you to determine your criteria for evaluating a probability.

Thus, regardless of the amount of a odds whether it is a at 1.01 or at 1000 odds, each of these odds is likely to represent a value bet.

How to bet on more or less 2.5 goals?

To bet well on football, let’s analyze the data from the Watford – Tottenham match to assess the accuracy of the odds offered.

Comments are closed.